b'Research QuestionsKey Research Question:How accurate is the current process11% Charged for Non IPV Crimeof predicting high-risk IPV offending in London, Ontario, in a list of 1,314 identified offenders?34% NOT charged for any crimes20%Whatotherpossiblepredictors could be used to enhance the accuracyCharged for IPV Crime of targeting high-risk IPV? NOT in a high harm categorySub Questions: Charged for IPV Crime 35% in a high harm category1. How were the 1,314 persons identified as high risk (HR)by whom, with what pipeline of candidates to assess, with whatFigure 1: Forecasted High-Risk Offenders After a 730-Day Follow Upassessment procedures? 2. Among HR offenders, in the 730 days after their identification as HR, how many were : Not charged for any crimecategory [false positive 1] Charged with a crime Not charged for IPV but for some35%NOT charged with a crimeother category [false positive 2] (335) 65% Charged for IPV but not in a high- harm category [false positive 3] (624)Charged for IPV in a high-harm category [true positives] How many were flagged in each category as havingsuicidal tendencies?3. Among all perpetrators of theFigure 2: Flagged High-Risk Offenders Charged Vs Not Charged with a Crime after 730 Days highest high-harm IPV in 2009-19, how many were not on the list of 1,314? How many of these individuals were flagged ashaving suicidal tendencies? offenderswereflaggedashighriskIn contrast, 35 per cent of offenders (false negatives) between 2009 and 2019.that were forecasted as high risk were 4. Among all 9,035 total perpetratorsIn order to understand the accur- notchargedwithanycrimesinthe 730-day follow-up period, as shown of IPV in 2009-2019, how manyacy of the risk assessments, a clearin Figure 1.were not on the forecasted listdefinition of high risk needed to be of 1,314 offenders and did notestablished. For the purposes of thisFigure2illustratesthatthecur-commit a high-harm offence? study, 15 IPV crimes were identifiedrentmodelofforecastinghigh-risk (true negatives) based on the Canadian Crime Severityoffenders accurately predicts general Findings Indextocausethemostharm.Therecidivism in 65 per cent of cases.post-flag offending was examined for The safeguarding practices conducteda 730-day period for each of the 1,314In order to provide a fulsome under-by the IPV Unit at the London Policeoffenders that were classified as highstanding of the forecasting model, this Serviceinvolvesanassessmentofrisk. As a result of this research, itresearch examined the total number every offender after they are chargedwas found that 11 per cent of offend- ofoffendersthatcommittedoneor withanIPVcrime,primarilyusingers that were forecasted as high riskmore of the 15 identified high-harm the ODARA risk assessment tool. As awent on to commit one or more of thecrimesbetween2009and2019.It result of the risk assessments, 1,31415 high-harm crimes within 730 days.wasfoundthat2,398ofatotalofThe Official Publication of the Ontario Association of Chiefs of Police21'