b'SPECIAL FEATURE: INDUSTRY PROMOTIONLOOKING AHEAD WITH BUILDFORCEManitobas outlook calls for steady construction growth to 2033but how will public policy imperatives change labour force demands?By Klayton Gonalves, Senior Economist and Head of Business Intelligence, BuildForce CanadaLast year saw Manitobas constructionresidential renovations (+2 per cent) andyoung demographic. This should help labour market benefit from a relativelyresidential maintenance (+7 per cent) isthe construction sector contend with the measured pace of growth. A smallexpected to rise to 2033, a contractionchallenge of replenishing ancontraction in overall output occurred inof nearly 16 per cent in new-housingaging workforce.2023 as a slight gain in non-residentialemployment will more than offset By 2033, as many as 9,100 workers construction investment levels wasthose gains. are expected to exit the construction overshadowed by a comparatively largerNON-RESIDENTIAL OUTPUT ISindustry due to retirement. A further contraction in residential construction. POISED FOR GROWTH TO 2033 4,000 will be required to respond to the Released in March, BuildForce CanadasThe outlook for the provincesprojected growth in activity. The good Construction and Maintenance Lookingnon-residential sector is more positive. news is, as many as 10,200 new-entrant Forward report for Manitoba for theAfter slowing in 2021 with the conclusionworkers aged 30 or younger are 2024 to 2033 period forecasts thatof work on the Keeyask Dam project,projected to close most of this labour many of these same patterns will holdactivity returned to growth in 2022, force gap, leaving the industry with a across the decadeassuming business- and grew again in 2023 with strongshortfall of some 2,900 workers that as-usual levels of activity. demand for the construction ofwill need to be recruited from other RESIDENTIAL OUTLOOKindustrial, commercial and institutionalprovinces, other industries or from CONSTRAINED BY SLUGGISH(ICI) buildings. among traditionally underrepresented DEMAND FOR NEW HOUSING groups of workers such as women, The outlook for the provinces residentialInvestment levels are poised to remainIndigenous people and newcomerssector calls for modest growth of threerelatively muted in the short term beforeto Canada.per cent across the forecast period.growing strongly between 2026 andRESIDENTIAL AND GREENRecent interest rate increases have2030. The engineering constructionBUILDING IMPERATIVES COULD created a drag on investment in newsector will benefit from the start ofCHANGE EVERYTHINGhousing construction, and costlier single- work on several water and wastewaterIt is important to note that the above detached units in particular. Even asprojects. Demand for ICI buildings,figures assume business-as-usual these pressures ease through 2024 andmeanwhile, is projected to increaseconditions. They do not account for 2025, demand for these units is unlikelysteadily to 2033, with significant growththe potential impact on the provinces to rebound strongly. Consumers areforecasted for education and construction labour force created by increasingly showing a preference forhealth-care projects. two high-profile current public-policy the purchase of more affordable multi- These conditions should combine toinitiatives: building new homes to unit builds. elevate non-residential employment bymeet federal affordability targets, and The bright spot for Manitobas residential15 per cent above 2023 levels by 2033.retrofitting existing buildings to carbon-sector will be in renovation activity,Gains are projected to be greatest inneutral standards.which is projected to increase steadilyICI construction (+30 per cent), withBuildForce addressed each of these across the forecast period as moreengineering construction employmentscenarios in separate reports, also homeowners opt to add value to their(+11 per cent) and maintenancereleased this spring.existing assets rather than purchasingemployment (+3 per cent) following suit. Our Residential Outlook Report for new properties. A YOUNGER DEMOGRAPHIC Manitoba finds that, for the industry to Combined, these trends are expected toCOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT meet the housing supply gap targets contract residential employment by asOF RETIREMENTS identified by the Canada Mortgage much as six per cent between 2024 andUnlike many provinces, Manitoba isand Housing Corporation (CMHC) by 2033. Although employment relating tofortunate to enjoy a comparatively2033, it must build just short of 240,000 20 BUILD MANITOBAwinnipegconstruction.ca'